Expert score prediction: Nebraska vs. Iowa

Nebraska enters the regular-season final with the annual Black Friday rivalry game against the Iowa Hawkeyes. The Huskers are also looking to rebound from their 37-10 blowout loss at Penn State. Iowa is coming off a 20-17 victory over Michigan State.

But the Hawkeyes, much like the Nittany Lions, provide an offense and defense that could foil Nebraska. Iowa comes in with a strong defense and a run-heavy offense, with a small dose of passing. Unless the Huskers produce a quick turnaround, this matchup may yield results similar to their recent loss.

But Iowa is arriving in Lincoln after snapping a two-game losing streak, which came off a game-winning last-second field goal against Michigan State. The Hawkeyes erased a 17-7 deficit in the fourth quarter of that game, scoring 13 unanswered points, which included 10 points in the final two and a half minutes.

This included quarterback Mark Gronowski tossing 123 of his 147 passing yards in the final quarter, helping the Hawkeyes complete the comeback. Gronowski completed nine passes in the fourth, but finished 12-of-22 on the day. In the last three games, he’s averaged 141 passing yards on just under 12 completions off 20 attempts.

Iowa doesn’t lean heavily on Gronowski, but he makes the most of his limited play. Considering Penn State’s Ethan Grunkemeyer finished 11-of-12 for 181 yards against Nebraska, Gronowski could tally similar numbers. But that is only half of the battle for the Blackshirts.

In November, the Hawkeyes’ run game is averaging 146 rushing yards on just over 38 carries. The Huskers, meanwhile, allow 167.5 yards on the ground per game this season. Kamari Moulton and Gronowski lead Iowa in rushing, combining for 1,117 yards on 245 carries. Moulton averages five yards per carry while Gronowski averages four yards per run.

Nebraska’s defense is in for a tough Black Friday, but its offense could help keep it close. Across the last three games, the Hawkeyes allowed an average of just over 20 points per contest. Iowa’s also surrendered 207 passing yards on just over 20 completions on just under 31 attempts in that stretch. Its run defense coughed up an average of 149 yards on just over 31 carries.

Emmett Johnson rushed for over a hundred yards in each of the last four games, averaging just over 130 yards on just under 26 carries per contest in that stretch. If Nebraska can get him going once again, he could keep Iowa on its toes.

TJ Lateef could also rebound from an uneven outing against Penn State, where he went 21-of-37 for 187 yards. Whether the true freshman takes off downfield or can be efficient like his UCLA outing, he has the opportunity to catch the Hawkeyes off guard after dealing with a tough Nittany Lions defense.

But Iowa’s four losses have all been one-score defeats at the hands of ranked opponents. The Hawkeyes did get off to a hot start against USC, going up 21-7, but then allowed 19 unanswered points. Iowa then led Oregon heading into the final minutes, but the Ducks secured the win on a last-second field goal.

Nebraska isn’t Oregon or USC. Iowa is most likely running away with this, but if the Huskers can put up a fight, especially with home-field advantage, it will still need a lot of breaks to go its way to secure a victory.

Score Prediction: Iowa 24, Nebraska 14

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This article originally appeared on Cornhuskers Wire: Expert score prediction: Nebraska vs. Iowa