SEC championship scenarios, explained: How Alabama, Georgia, others can reach 2025 title game

SEC championship scenarios, explained: How Alabama, Georgia, others can reach 2025 title game originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Four teams have a shot at reaching the SEC championship game.

No. 3 Texas A&M, No. 10 Alabama, No. 4 Georgia and No. 6 Ole Miss all have a shot at the SEC championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 6.

The Aggies control their own destiny. Texas A&M is the lone team with an unbeaten record, and the Aggies can clinch their first SEC championship game appearance in school history with a victory against rival Texas on Friday.

Georgia already has completed its SEC schedule, and the Bulldogs have a head-to-head victory against Ole Miss. The Rebels play Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Friday. Alabama, which has a head-to-head victory against the Bulldogs, will have the final say in the Iron Bowl on Saturday.

A look at the scenarios for the SEC championship game and who will play in the game.

MORE: CFP forecast after Week 13 | Bowl projections

SEC championship scenarios 2025

Four teams are still in the SEC championship game picture. A look at their paths to the conference championship game:

Texas A&M (11-0, 7-0)

- The Aggies clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Texas.

- The Aggies also can reach the SEC championship game if Alabama loses to Auburn OR Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State.

- The Aggies have the lowest cumulative conference winning percentage among the four teams at (.276).

Alabama (9-2, 6-1)

- Alabama clinches a spot with a win against Auburn AND a Texas A&M loss to Texas.

- Alabama also clinches a spot with a win against Auburn AND an Ole Miss loss to Mississippi State.

- Alabama also can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn and having the highest cumulative conference winning percentage ahead of Georgia AND Ole Miss. It’s the highest among the four teams (.500).

Georgia (10-1, 7-1)

- Georgia can reach the SEC championship game if Auburn beats Alabama OR Texas beats Texas A&M.

- Georgia also could get in the SEC championship game via a three-way tie with Alabama and Ole Miss if the Bulldogs win the opponents’ cumulative conference winning percentage tiebreaker. Right now, the Bulldogs have the second-highest among the four teams (.465).

Ole Miss (10-1, 6-1)

- Ole Miss can reach the SEC championship game with a win against Mississippi State AND a Texas win over Texas A&M AND an Auburn win over Alabama.

- Ole Miss also could get in the SEC championship game via a three-way tie with Alabama and Georgia if the Rebels win the opponents’ cumulative conference winning percentage tiebreaker. Right now, the Bulldogs have the lowest among the three teams (.450).

SEC chaos scenario

There is a path where four teams could have at least one loss. Who are those teams?

• Texas A&M loses to Texas

• Ole Miss beats Mississippi State 

• Alabama beats Auburn 

If those three results happen, then the Bulldogs, Aggies, Rebels and Crimson Tide all will have one loss. If that is the case, Alabama and Georgia would likely be in the SEC championship game because of the tiebreaker involving opponents’  cumulative conference winning percentage.

SEC tiebreaker rules for 2025 season

The SEC will use six potential tie-breakers for the 2025 season in this order until the tie is broken:

Step 1: Head-to-head competition: This is the easiest tie-beaker. Did Team A beat Team B?

Step 2: Record vs. all common conference opponents.

Step 3: Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among tied teams.

Step 4: Cumulative conference winning percentages of all conference opponents among tied teams.

Step 5: Capped relative total scoring margin vs. all conference opponents among the tied teams.

Step 6: Random draw.

SEC common opponents tracker for 2025

Here is a look at the common opponents for all the SEC teams with two losses or less:

OPPONENT

A&M

BAMA

OLE MISS

UGA

Alabama

-

-

W 41-35

L 24-21

Arkansas

W 45-42

-

-

-

Auburn

W 16-10

Nov. 29

-

W 20-10

Florida

W 34-17

-

W 34-24

W 24-20

Georgia

-

W 24-21

L 43-35

-

Kentucky

-

-

W 30-23

W 35-14

LSU

W 49-25

W 20-9

W 24-19

-

Mississippi State

W 31-9

-

Nov. 28

W 41-21

Missouri

W 38-17

W 27-24

-

-

Ole Miss

-

-

-

W 43-35

Oklahoma

-

L 23-21

W 34-26

-

South Carolina

W 31-30

W 29-22

W 30-14

-

Tennessee

-

W 37-20

-

W 44-41

Texas

Nov. 28

-

-

W 35-10

Texas A&M

-

-

-

-

Vanderbilt

-

W 30-14

-

-

RECORD

16-42

29-29

27-33

27-31

%

.276

.500

.450

.465